Tuesday, April 2, 2013

North Korea

News
No new updates for this week.

Quote

“Study the past if you would define the future.”
-Confucius

My Thoughts

Again this week will be a change from the usual topics.

Here is my analysis of what is going on with North Korea, as mentioned previously I was an intelligence analyst for 11 years (just so you know what I am basing my opinion on).

I will give you my prediction and what factors influenced this prediction.

***Remember this is my opinion only, I could be wrong***

I am providing this to inform people so that you have more information to make your own opinions.
If I am completely wrong then that's fine with me.

The chance of a limited attack within the next month is very high (90%).
The chance of a large attack is not as likely (30%).

Factors I looked at, when compared to historical norms (available open source; over the last 12-18 months):
-Increase in military training/weapons testing
-Preparing the public for war
-Increase in public control (would cause a decrease in defections initially and then an increase)
-Increase defections/AWOL from military
-Increase/change in pattern of threats
-Increase in war material production
-Importing more war materials...like silver
-Cutting communication channels
-Probing defenses
-Restricting communication access inside the country
-Unusual rallies with a different tone
-Closing of the airport
-Recall diplomats
-Unusual troop movement
-Change in behavior of the leader (this one is near impossible to do because Kim Jong Un is so new).

Factors which I think have little or nothing to do with what North Korea is up to:
-DMZ Tours still operating
-Public response in South Korea
-Kaesong

My Prediction

When doing analysis we can not look at what we (or our country) would do, that is a huge mistake. We need to look at what would North Korea do? You often here people say things like that doesn't make any sense (when referring to the possibility of a North Korean attack), well the truth is war doesn't really make any sense and yet warlike situations occur basically on a daily basis in many parts of the world.

The tensions right now are probably the highest they've been since 1953. South Korea's President has authorized preemptive strikes in certain situations and to respond accordingly if attacked first. The US has increased the show of force here over the recent weeks.

North Korea typically follows a cycle of threats and maybe some silence and then a threat or two and then asks for something. But generally it doesn't last very long and we don't tend to see a lot of the factors listed above.

But why would North Korea attack?

Well typically if they don't get what they want they will do something relatively small (compared to war) and in the past South Korea and the US response has been one of non or limited engagement. This has changed recently. They could also attack to save face or a combination of both factors.

So now if they do something relatively small (like sink a ship, or shell an island, or send some special forces in to kill some people, etc...) South Korea will respond stronger than before.
This will lead to one of two situations:
1. The North takes the attack and doesn't fight back. (40%)
- This may happen if they don't want to risk a full war but I really think it depends on how hard South Korea strikes back.

2. The North takes the attack and returns more fire back. (60%)
- I think this event is more likely, especially if South Korea attempts to attack command and control facilities. Of course in this situation it could lead to a full-scale conflict.

What about a large scale attack by the North?

While I think this is less likely, it's possible. I think this would occur if North Korea feels it's backed up against the wall and it's internal situation is so bad that it thinks this is the only option.

For those of you that don't know about the North's military or think it's old and worthless, I suggest reading up on their artillery and special operations forces.

Finally if I were North Korea and I wanted to attack (limited or large) this is what I would do:
-Tone down the harsh talking
- Perhaps signal that you were going to change something
- Then in mid-May or June attack something

How could tensions drop?

I think perhaps the US show of force may help, but one has to be careful not to scare the North too much.

Maybe that plus China offering dialogue may help, but I personally believe the old way of dealing with North Korea (they create a crisis, we give them something) is not the most beneficial. North Korea will eventually have nukes that can fit on a missile (maybe in 3-5 years), plus from a humanitarian point of view approximately 2/3 of their population is facing food shortages (some quite severe), not to mention their economic situation. Perhaps handling them a different way is better.

As mentioned last week, I think it's a good idea if you have a bag ready and a plan in place in case the situation worsens.