Tuesday, April 2, 2013

North Korea

News
No new updates for this week.

Quote

“Study the past if you would define the future.”
-Confucius

My Thoughts

Again this week will be a change from the usual topics.

Here is my analysis of what is going on with North Korea, as mentioned previously I was an intelligence analyst for 11 years (just so you know what I am basing my opinion on).

I will give you my prediction and what factors influenced this prediction.

***Remember this is my opinion only, I could be wrong***

I am providing this to inform people so that you have more information to make your own opinions.
If I am completely wrong then that's fine with me.

The chance of a limited attack within the next month is very high (90%).
The chance of a large attack is not as likely (30%).

Factors I looked at, when compared to historical norms (available open source; over the last 12-18 months):
-Increase in military training/weapons testing
-Preparing the public for war
-Increase in public control (would cause a decrease in defections initially and then an increase)
-Increase defections/AWOL from military
-Increase/change in pattern of threats
-Increase in war material production
-Importing more war materials...like silver
-Cutting communication channels
-Probing defenses
-Restricting communication access inside the country
-Unusual rallies with a different tone
-Closing of the airport
-Recall diplomats
-Unusual troop movement
-Change in behavior of the leader (this one is near impossible to do because Kim Jong Un is so new).

Factors which I think have little or nothing to do with what North Korea is up to:
-DMZ Tours still operating
-Public response in South Korea
-Kaesong

My Prediction

When doing analysis we can not look at what we (or our country) would do, that is a huge mistake. We need to look at what would North Korea do? You often here people say things like that doesn't make any sense (when referring to the possibility of a North Korean attack), well the truth is war doesn't really make any sense and yet warlike situations occur basically on a daily basis in many parts of the world.

The tensions right now are probably the highest they've been since 1953. South Korea's President has authorized preemptive strikes in certain situations and to respond accordingly if attacked first. The US has increased the show of force here over the recent weeks.

North Korea typically follows a cycle of threats and maybe some silence and then a threat or two and then asks for something. But generally it doesn't last very long and we don't tend to see a lot of the factors listed above.

But why would North Korea attack?

Well typically if they don't get what they want they will do something relatively small (compared to war) and in the past South Korea and the US response has been one of non or limited engagement. This has changed recently. They could also attack to save face or a combination of both factors.

So now if they do something relatively small (like sink a ship, or shell an island, or send some special forces in to kill some people, etc...) South Korea will respond stronger than before.
This will lead to one of two situations:
1. The North takes the attack and doesn't fight back. (40%)
- This may happen if they don't want to risk a full war but I really think it depends on how hard South Korea strikes back.

2. The North takes the attack and returns more fire back. (60%)
- I think this event is more likely, especially if South Korea attempts to attack command and control facilities. Of course in this situation it could lead to a full-scale conflict.

What about a large scale attack by the North?

While I think this is less likely, it's possible. I think this would occur if North Korea feels it's backed up against the wall and it's internal situation is so bad that it thinks this is the only option.

For those of you that don't know about the North's military or think it's old and worthless, I suggest reading up on their artillery and special operations forces.

Finally if I were North Korea and I wanted to attack (limited or large) this is what I would do:
-Tone down the harsh talking
- Perhaps signal that you were going to change something
- Then in mid-May or June attack something

How could tensions drop?

I think perhaps the US show of force may help, but one has to be careful not to scare the North too much.

Maybe that plus China offering dialogue may help, but I personally believe the old way of dealing with North Korea (they create a crisis, we give them something) is not the most beneficial. North Korea will eventually have nukes that can fit on a missile (maybe in 3-5 years), plus from a humanitarian point of view approximately 2/3 of their population is facing food shortages (some quite severe), not to mention their economic situation. Perhaps handling them a different way is better.

As mentioned last week, I think it's a good idea if you have a bag ready and a plan in place in case the situation worsens.






Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Being Prepared

News
No new updates for this week.

Quote
“It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
-J.R.R. Tolkien

My Thoughts
This week I'd like to discuss something slightly different from what I usually talk about.

As some of you know, in my previous career I was an intelligence analyst for 11 years. Five of those years I spent as a military analyst, and the other six were spent on other types of analysis and collection.
During my five years as a military analyst my main area of focus was North Korea and I was an expert in North Korean special operations forces.

Why am I telling you this?

Well, it would appear the situation in Korea is growing more serious. Of course, I no longer have access to intelligence reports but I can do what is called open source intelligence (OSINT) analysis. Based on that analysis I believe the situation is quite dangerous, with a significant possibility of something small (relative to full war) to happen within the next few weeks. That something small has the potential to escalate rather quickly into a full scale conflict.

I am not saying this to scare anyone but just to keep you informed.

Many people think that the government and/or embassies will be able to fully protect them or that there will be some evacuation order issued far in advance of any conflict. It would be a huge error in judgment to believe this will happen.

I encourage all of you to make your own plans to evacuate in case of an emergency.
Here is what I recommend:

-Pack a bag with at least 4 liters of water, chocolate, spam/tuna, maybe crackers, essential documents, a few clothing items, baby wipes, toothbrush & toothpaste (perhaps a razor and shaving cream), lighters, flashlight, and a knife.

-Have cash readily available. I recommend at least 100,000 won but more would be better.

-Have a designated meeting point with friends and/or family. Don't expect the cell network to work.

-Head south.

-If it has escalated into a full scale war, avoid the Yongsan army base area , the Ministry of National Defense, the Blue House, Osan and Kunsan air bases.
Use the undergorund tunnels of the subway to move south.
The military and/or civil defense personnel may direct you where to go.

Again I don't want to scare anyone and I hope none of this will be necessary, but I think it's best to be prepared.

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Dealing with Problems

News
No new updates for this week.

Quote
“In three words I can sum up everything I've learned about life: it goes on.”
-Robert Frost

My Thoughts
Oftentimes in life people seem to think that their problems are so big, or so unique to them, that they appear impossible to overcome.  In many cases it can lead to people giving up there dreams. In some cases it can lead to depression, alcohol/drug abuse, etc.. Sometimes it can lead someone to choose to commit suicide.

Based on how you view your problems tends to determine the thoughts you receive related to solving the problem. Ex: This is too difficult, or I'll never be able to do this.
Another thing to look at is how you phrase the problem. Ex: I need to lose 30lbs, or I wish I could earn more money.

I recommend trying to put your problems into the form of a question (avoiding why questions).
For example:
Suppose I could solve this problem, what would I do?
Has someone else experienced this problem before? If so, what did they do?
I'd like to be more healthy, what are things I could do to accomplish this?
It would be great if I had more financial freedom, what could I do to move myself in that direction?

Then write down what thoughts come to you. Sometimes immediate solutions don't jump right out so spend some time thinking it over. I've also found that sometimes an answer will pop out when you are relaxed or your conscious mind is engaged in another activity (ex: taking a shower, watching a concert, etc..)

The other thing I encourage you to do is put your problem in perspective.
Is getting fired from your job the end of the world? It may seem like it at first, but do you still have a roof over your head? If the answer to that is yes then you are doing okay, if the answer is no, then do you have the potential to earn income? The answer to that question for the overwhelming majority of people is yes.

These are the strategies that I use when dealing with problems that seem overwhelming at first. I hope that they can provide some help to you as well.

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Deciding on Happiness

News
I have one spot remaining for personal training. I will announce it to a wider audience next week so my schedule will be full. I wanted to give all of you the opportunity to receive this training at a discounted rate first.

Remember, if you train with me for three months and don't get results then you will get a full refund.

Please feel free to email me if you want to sign up, or if you have any questions:
bob@oneamazinglife.com

Instead of sharing a quote and my thoughts this week, I wanted to share this story I found with you:

Story

The 92-year-old, petite, well-poised and proud lady, who is fully dressed each morning by eight o'clock, with her hair fashionably coifed and makeup perfectly applied, even though she is legally blind, moved to a nursing home today. Her husband of 70 years recently passed away, making the move necessary. After many hours of waiting patiently in the lobby of the nursing home, she smiled sweetly when told her room was ready. As she maneuvered her walker to the elevator, I provided a visual description of her tiny room, including the eyelet sheets that had been hung on her window. "I love it," she stated with the enthusiasm of an eight-year-old having just been presented with a new puppy. "Mrs. Jones, you haven't seen the room .... just wait." "That doesn't have anything to do with it," she replied. "Happiness is something you decide on ahead of time. Whether I like my room or not doesn't depend on how the furniture is arranged ... it's how I arrange my mind. I already decided to love it ... It's a decision I make every morning when I wake up. I have a choice; I can spend the day in bed recounting the difficulty I have with the parts of my body that no longer work, or get out of bed and be thankful for the ones that do. Each day is a gift, and as long as my eyes open I'll focus on the new day and all the happy memories I've stored away ... just for this time in my life."


Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Life Changing Goals

News
I mentioned last week about three spots being available for personal training but someone already contacted me and started so now there are two spaces available.

I have 15 years experience with working out and almost 10 years experience training people. If you are interested in LOSING FAT, maintaining your weight, or getting bigger I can help. I also specialize in getting people stronger (regardless if they want to lose, maintain, or gain weight).

If you try me as a trainer for three months and you don't get the results you want I'll give you your money back.

Here are the days and times I am currently available for personal training:

M & W: 11am - 4pm; 8pm - 10pm
Tu & Th: 2pm - 10pm
F: 7am - 11am;  2pm -10pm
Sat: 2pm - 6pm

I may also be available outside of those times, so feel free to ask.

My rate: 65,000 won per session.
600,000 won for 10 sessions.
1,000,000 won for 20 sessions.
Flexible pay plans are available.

My best male client successes:
-Lost 40kgs (~90lbs) in 18 months at 55 years old.
-Lost 25kgs( 55lbs) in less than 6 months.

My best female client success: Lost 12kgs (~25lbs) in 4 months.

And all of them have kept the weight off.

Certifications: LifeSuccess, FMS, NFPT-CPT (starting soon)

Upcoming competitions: Tactical Strength Challenge: April 27th

Bodybuilding competition: mid-September.

If you have any questions, please feel free to email me: bob@oneamazinglife.com

Quote
“The future depends on what you do today.”
-Gandhi

My Thoughts
I mentioned last week about the importance of starting something now before it's too late.

I'd like to briefly share my story about how I ended going from frail and weak to healthy and strong (plus becoming a personal trainer).

In 1998, I was 183cm (6') tall and didn't even weigh 60kgs (~130lbs)! Over a period of ten years I ended up going all the way up to 108kgs (~240lbs) while gaining more muscle than fat. I did it naturally, and I had numerous setbacks. Oftentimes I trained so hard I would get sick for a week. I also got injured quite a few times during the process. After I got to 108kgs I decided to do a bodybuidling diet, and I went all the way down to 84kgs (185lbs) and was less than 10% bodyfat.

Over the last 15 years I've learned a ton about myself and about working out, diet and nutrition.  I've learned what works and what doesn't. Through that time I hired two awesome trainers and they helped me tremendously. Looking back on it I should have hired a knowledgeable trainer at the start, it probably would have helped me reach my goals faster and stay injury free.

The point of all of this is that I will be 33 years old this year. I am the strongest and healthiest I've ever been and I have no injuries. This change has also positively affected other areas of my life as well (for example confidence, persistence, etc...).

In the fitness industry there are numerous fads, gimmicks, and outright lies. It can be hard to see the truth and can also be intimidating. At the gyms where I train I've seen trainers push people way too hard for their appropriate fitness level, or compromise lifting form, or both...all of this will lead to injuries. Some of them could be serious. I myself was injured for almost a year due to another trainer's incompetence.

So what allowed me to completely change my health?

1. I set a goal. A very big goal (gaining 45kgs) . So big that people told me it would be impossible.
2. I visualized and took action.
3. I sought out people more knowledgeable than myself.

I will tell you this, the older you get the harder it will be to achieve your health related goals so if you are interested in changing your health and fitness level I strongly encourage you to take action now.




Monday, February 25, 2013

Time is Fleeting

I apologize for not posting messages over the last two weeks. I had to take a sudden trip back to the US for my grandfather's funeral. He lead a good, long life before passing away at 87.

News
I've decided to offer my one on one personal training services to three people. I will post more about this next week.

Quote
Life is a chessboard, and the player opposite you is TIME. If you hesitate, or neglect to move decisively, your pieces will be wiped off the board by TIME. You are playing against a partner who will not tolerate INDECISION!
-Napoleon Hill

My Thoughts
This was my first time back to the US in four years and while it was on a sad note it offered me the opportunity to catch up with friends and family, some of whom I haven't seen in 10+ years.

It was also a great reminder of how time is fleeting. If you keep putting things off until tomorrow, one day you will run out of tomorrows and then you are left wishing you had done this and that.

The great news is that you have the ability to change where your life is headed. It all starts with a simple decision, a decision to do something different.

I encourage you this week to see which areas of your life you would like to change and then write down one or two ways in which you can make that happen.

I'll write about this in more detail next week.

Have a wonderful week!

Bob

Tuesday, February 5, 2013

Building Dreams

News
I had the pleasure of meeting with Yesung Han last week. She is the director of AngloINFO Seoul. If you are looking for what's going on or services in Seoul then I highly recommend you check out the site:

http://seoul.angloinfo.com/

Also I've decided to offer my personal training services to more people. I am currently deciding on how many more clients I'd like to take on. I will decide and provide more info information regarding the personal training next week.

Quote
“Build your own dreams, or someone else will hire you to build theirs.”
-Farrah Grey

My Thoughts
I know that I mentioned this a few weeks ago, but I feel it's vitally important to grasp this concept.

I'd like you to spend some serious time answering the following question:

What is it that you really would like to be, do, or have?

If you can answer that question, then congratulations you have completed step one to changing your life.

The next question is then how do you get from there to actually achieving what you desire?

1. Write it down (in the present tense).
2. Put a date on it.
3. Read it out loud with emotion at least twice a day.
4. Spend at least five minutes per day visualizing.
5. Take action. You don't have to plan every single step to achieve your desire, just look at what you can do now to move you closer to your goal.

I'd also recommend that you dream big. Your goal should be something that scares and excites you at the same time.

I've personally used the method above and went from being broke to earning over $120,000 a year in three years. I also used it to completely change my health and body.

Numerous of my coaching clients have used the method above to completely change one or more areas of their lives.

If you are not happy with one or more areas of your life then I recommend that you spend some time this week looking at what you'd like to change.